What now for UMNO

Assalamu alaikum and good day dear readers

The recently concluded GE13 have shown the continued resilience of UMNO as the backbone of the ruling Barisan Nasional which was again successful in returning to power albeit with a reduced majority of 133 seats in the Parliament.  Standing as a marriage of convenience for the second election running, the Pakatan Rakyat managed to wrest 89 seats with DAP leading the final tally of 38 seats followed by PKR with 30 seats and PAS with 21.  Anything can happen in politics, they say, but for BN, the future seems to be written on the wall as far as its political relevance and longevity is concerned.

The achievement of the ruling coalition at the federal level underlines the downtrend of support for the Barisan Nasional which was unable to improve on its achievement in 2008 where they won 140 parliamentary seats.  This is the first time that the coalition was unable to garner a minimum of 60% of the seats in the Dewan Rakyat. This is also the lowest tally of popular votes for BN as its 47% beats the previous 49.3% it garnered as the then Alliance Party in 1969.

A more disturbing trend is the absence of UMNO major coalition partners from the Malaysian peninsula as GE13 has left UMNO's allies such as MCA, Gerakan and PPP devastated.  Whilst MIC has somewhat improved on its showing from 2008 (perhaps galvanised by its new president Datuk Seri G Palanivel and its new stalwarts such as P Kamalanathan), MCA which won 7 seats altogether lost all of its seats in Chinese-majority electorates.  This also marks its worst achievement ever in the general election. 

Gerakan which held the Penang Chief Ministership for almost four decades was wiped out altogether from Penang and has only P151 Simpang Renggam to show as its sole Parliamentary representative.  PPP, the smallest component in the Barisan Nasional fold, lost all the seats it contested.  

The seemingly hollow victory for BN now begs the question which many Malaysians will want to know, be it the electorates, the BN component parties, opposition pact, or the regular Malaysian Malay Muslim.  With the result of the PRU13 now all but done and dusted they will want to know what now for UMNO?

A reading from the general election shows what the BN Chairman Datuk Seri Mohd Najib Tun Razak ('DSMNTR') termed as the 'Chinese Tsunami'.  The near complete rejection of Chinese BN representatives now leaves the Prime Minister with a lingering question on how his cabinet will look sans Chinese ministers via MCA.  More importantly, the issue on the future of the support of the Chinese electorate must be addressed even if the solution transcends race (which the tried and tested power-sharing formula of the BN is derived from).

Another reading from the election is the emerging pattern of the rural-urban divide which puts BN in a precarious position moving forward.  As it stands the power base of UMNO has consistently been the rural areas which are predominantly low-income Bumiputera electorates.  The challenge now is to expand the BN support into the territory of DAP and PKR of the Pakatan Rakyat in the mostly urban-mixed electorate in the states of Perak, Penang, Selangor and Federal Territory Kuala Lumpur.

Another important reading of the GE13 is in the continued debate of the 'Bumiputera Agenda' which has always been at the forefront of UMNO's struggles.  In order to push for its powerbase in the urban-mixed areas, UMNO will need to interpret its principles in a bigger, inclusive spectrum.  This fight for the rights of Malays and Bumiputeras should not be done whilst negating the rights of the Malays in Kelantan, or at the expense of its focus in the promise to assist MIC with its Indian social-reform agenda.

In order to lead his call for reform and reconciliation, DSMNTR will need to get assistance from strong characters as well as to entice new blood into the party.  The new addition will in turn need to be able to change the negative perceptions of the party as well as the existing habits that have been entrenched within the mammoth structure of UMNO and BN.

Just who are these 'change agents', how they are wooed into the BN and whether they are enough to aid the party at his time of need is anyone's guess.  One thing for sure is that the change agents must be throwbacks to the UMNO that was successful in its struggle for independence many, many years ago in that they are high in integrity as well as sincerity in helping UMNO and BN with its cause.

A long shot it may seem, but as they say again, anything can happen in politics.

Best regards and wasSalam

AAAA